Chronic Kidney Disease Market to Witness Slight Decline by 2017

As a result of the loss of patent for major brands in the late-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD) market, and the changing reimbursement environment across the six major markets (6MM), the CKD sales revenue will decrease at a negative Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.5% between 2012 and 2017, forecasts research and consulting firm GlobalData.

According to the company’s latest report*, the late-stage CKD market in the 6MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK) will decline from $1.88 billion in 2012 to $1.66 billion by 2017. GlobalData expects that the majority of sales will still come from the US (76%), with marginal increase in the 5EU’s share (24%) during the forecast period.

Savade Solanki, PhD, GlobalData’s Senior Analyst covering Oncology and Hematology, says: “Patent expiries of the major brands Renagel, Renvela, and Zemplar will be a severe barrier for growth for the late-stage CKD market. Additionally, the healthcare reimbursement policy is changing in the US and Europe, which will have a negative impact on the stage 5 hemodialysis treatment market.

“In particular, the 2011 inclusion of intravenous (IV) drugs in the Medicare dialysis reimbursement bundle, and the expected 2016 inclusion of oral treatments, will be a major hurdle to the growth of premium-priced branded agents.”

Furthermore, despite the variety of drugs available for the treatment of hyperphosphatemia and secondary hyperparathyroidism in late-stage CKD patients, GlobalData identifies high unmet needs for treatments with better efficacy in tackling these comorbidities.

“Patients treated with Renvela, the current gold-standard phosphate binder, are taking eight tablets per day on average. As a result of this large pill burden, there is poor patient compliance and adherence not only to phosphate binder treatment, but also oral treatments that are concomitantly given to treat other co-existing comorbidities,” Solanki says.

Other unmet needs, according to GlobalData, include the necessity of well-tolerated and IV-administered calcimimetics, and the earlier diagnosis and treatment of comorbidities. Lower cost of therapy and better clinical guidelines have also been identified as areas for improvement.

*OpportunityAnalyzer: Late-Stage Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) — Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2017