Alzheimer'?s Disease Market to Witness Slight Increase by 2019

As a result of Phase III therapy LMTX potentially entering the Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) industry in the near future, the AD market will increase slightly from $3.6 billion in 2012 to $3.8 billion in 2019, forecasts business intelligence provider GBI Research.

According to the company’s latest report*, the current AD market with the available products is in serious decline. However, this could be offset by LMTX should it be approved, which is far from certain in a market characterised by one of the highest attrition rates across the industry. Such decline is due to the limited late-stage pipeline, as well as the patent expiration of all current treatments.

Despite a number of recent high-profile failures, there is still great interest surrounding AD, with 254 drugs in the discovery and preclinical stages alone. However, the number of therapies in later stages of the pipeline is somewhat limited, with a reasonable 68 molecules in Phase II, but only five in Phase III.

Dr Waldemar Ockert, Managing Analyst at GBI Research, says: “This reflects an endemic problem in AD therapeutics, as the progression rate from Phase II to Phase III, and then to filing for marketing approval after Phase III studies, is among the lowest across the entire pharmaceutical industry.

“The lack of strong potential disease-modifying therapies in the pipeline that could have a substantial impact on the market is particularly troubling, as the overall global prevalence of the disease is forecast to increase.”

Another market restraint is the fact that many drugs are tested in patients with established AD and advanced neurodegeneration.

“Most trials test products in patients with mild to moderate AD, at which stage neurodegeneration is likely to be too advanced for a potentially disease-modifying therapeutic intervention. The fact that a reasonably high proportion of patients will not respond to drug therapy increases the overall possibility of the drug not attaining statistical significance,” Ockert says.

GBI Research believes there is a severe need for definitive biomarkers, particularly for diagnosis of asymptomatic and prodromal AD, a greater understanding of the disease etiology and further research into an earlier therapeutic intervention, with amyloid beta targeting agents and other potentially disease-modifying therapeutics.

*Alzheimer’s Disease Therapeutics Market to 2019 — Early Stage Innovation Points to Disease Modifying Therapies and Market Transformation